Our Novel Research
Our research emerges from three perspectives: traditional investing experience that showed us what institutional capital misses, quantamental investing work that taught us how to systematize signal detection, and our current focus on early-stage VC where we see the largest disconnect between capital allocation and actual opportunity.
Combining these experiences, we've identified measurable signals that predict exceptional founders and outcomes. Here's what they reveal—and what it means for identifying exceptional opportunities before the market prices them correctly.
Deep Dives
Here's some cool data-driven research on how our research shows great founders and great companies can be identified:
Seven Founder Archetypes Hidden in GitHub
We analyzed 1,636 active GitHub developers to identify seven distinct behavioral archetypes. Only ~20% show strong pre-founder signals. Learn which archetypes predict founder potential.
Generalist Builders: Why Multi-Project Developers Become Exceptional Founders
Conventional wisdom says influence predicts founder success. Our scatterplot analysis reveals the opposite: the best founders are prolific builders working across dozens of projects, not single-focus specialists.
Market Signals vs. Pitch Claims: Alternative Data for Company Diligence
Three real case studies (Deel, Relay.app, Content Hurricane) show how alternative data sources reveal company health across all stages—from pre-revenue to billion-dollar companies—without needing private financial information.